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The universality and context-dependence of airline passenger satisfaction: Regional and temporal dynamics from 27 Airlines
Author(s)
Date Issued
2026
Publisher
Elsevier BV
ISSN
2210-5395
2210-5409
Citation
Research in Transportation Business & Management, 2026, vol. 68, article no. 101756.
Type
Peer Reviewed Journal Article
Abstract
This study addresses a fundamental theoretical tension in transport marketing: Are the drivers of customer satisfaction universal or context-dependent? Using panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling on longitudinal data from 27 airlines across five regions (2013–2024), this study distinguishes short-run fluctuations from long-run equilibrium relationships, a methodological advancement over the cross-sectional designs that dominate aviation satisfaction research.
Results reveal that on-time performance is a universal driver, but its magnitude varies six-fold across regions. Critically, aircraft age and staffing levels show opposite effects to those hypothesized, as newer aircraft increase satisfaction in the West but decrease it in the Africa & Middle East (“fleet age paradox”), while staffing has positive short-run but negative long-run effects. Passenger yield, negatively associated with satisfaction globally, reverses sign in premium markets. Granger causality shows satisfaction predicts future on-time performance, positioning satisfaction as an operational asset.
The study makes three theoretical contributions: resolving the universality-contextuality debate in favor of context-dependent theories, revealing distinct temporal dynamics requiring dynamic frameworks, and specifying boundary conditions for existing satisfaction models. Practically, it provides regionally calibrated benchmarks and best practices for airline resource allocation, demonstrating that universal approaches are inappropriate in global aviation markets.
Results reveal that on-time performance is a universal driver, but its magnitude varies six-fold across regions. Critically, aircraft age and staffing levels show opposite effects to those hypothesized, as newer aircraft increase satisfaction in the West but decrease it in the Africa & Middle East (“fleet age paradox”), while staffing has positive short-run but negative long-run effects. Passenger yield, negatively associated with satisfaction globally, reverses sign in premium markets. Granger causality shows satisfaction predicts future on-time performance, positioning satisfaction as an operational asset.
The study makes three theoretical contributions: resolving the universality-contextuality debate in favor of context-dependent theories, revealing distinct temporal dynamics requiring dynamic frameworks, and specifying boundary conditions for existing satisfaction models. Practically, it provides regionally calibrated benchmarks and best practices for airline resource allocation, demonstrating that universal approaches are inappropriate in global aviation markets.
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