Studying the dynamic relationships between residential property prices, stock prices, and GDP: Lessons from Hong Kong

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamic relationships between GDP, residential property prices, and stock prices in Hong Kong. The study is interesting because most people put their wealth into these two markets. We find that there are long-run feedback effects between the two asset markets, providing evidence of wealth and credit-price effects in Hong Kong. There are also long-run, bi-directional causal links between real GDP and real asset prices. Hence, real asset prices can drive long-run economic growth and vice versa. Finally, the paper discusses what policy lessons can be drawn from the empirical analyses that have been undertaken.