Nonparametric cointegration tests for price convergence within the greater bay area of China

Abstract

The Chinese Government plans to create a world-class city cluster in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA). The GBA is a very attractive destination for both national and international businesses to profit in trading and investment activities. To realize the anticipated profit potential, existence of purchasing power parity (PPP) is a necessary condition for a favorable prospect of closer economic cooperation and integration in the GBA city cluster. Research study that investigates the PPP relationships among the GBA cities is scarce. To fill this research gap, our study aims to examine validity of the PPP and the extent of goods market integration in the GBA. Since the functional form of the cointegrating relationship may not be exact or linear, we adopt the rank tests for analysis without prior knowledge and specification of the functional form. We also address the rank problems that occur in multivariate rank tests. Results of the rank tests confirm validity of the PPP relationships among the GBA cities with some empirical evidence of nonlinearity that clear the doubt concerning the potential barriers to goods market integration in the GBA. There are policy implications for the local and central authorities in justifying further integrated development programs.